The United States of America (Second Half of the 2020s): An Anatomy of the Permanent Political Crisi
The United States of America (Second Half of the 2020s): An Anatomy of the Permanent Political Crisis. In the history of the United States, three presidents have undergone impeachment proceedings. But only one has managed to survive it twice, and yet returns to the Oval Office to face the prospect of a third, even more ferocious round of this constitutional showdown. The subject, of course, is Donald Trump. What we are observing today in the American political landscape this year is not just another round of partisan bickering. It is a historical crossroads, where the question "Will he remain in office until the end of his term?" is no longer the exclusive domain of fringe activists, but has shifted to a central item on the national agenda, discussed not only in the corridors of Congress but also on betting markets. Prelude: The Second Term as Revenge and Escalation. Even before the official inauguration in January of last year, rhetoric about a new impeachment hung heavy in the air of the Capitol building. Democrats, stunned by defeat and still haunted by the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, viewed Trump's return as an existential threat to the institutions. The White House, for its part, adopted the posture of a besieged fortress from day one, dismissing talk of impeachment as "pathetic" and proof of the opposition's "impotence." But unlike the first term, where the triggers for impeachment were relatively domestic events (the phone call with Zelenskyy and the January 6 riot), Trump's second administration plunged from its earliest months into a whirlwind of foreign policy adventurism, which has created the legal groundwork for the current demands for removal. This concerns military operations in Iran, the deployment of the National Guard in American cities, threats directed at Venezuela, and scandalous statements regarding Greenland and the Gaza Strip. The primary catalyst that raised the stakes to their highest historical level was the situation around the Strait of Hormuz in the spring of 2026. The president's threats to wipe entire civilizations off the face of the earth and his harsh ultimatums to Iran were viewed by the opposition not merely as bellicose rhetoric, but as potential war crimes and an abuse of power requiring an immediate constitutional response. Mechanism of the Crisis: The House and the Sword of Damocles Hanging over November. The main intrigue this year is unfolding not in the Senate chamber, but at the level of electoral expectations for the upcoming midterm elections. Currently, with the Republican Party controlling both chambers, any attempt to introduce articles of impeachment smashes against the wall of party discipline. Despite the protest gesture of Congressman John Larson, who introduced 13 articles of impeachment on April 6, including clauses on the "unlawful war in Iran" and "unstable conduct," this initiative has zero chance of even reaching a vote in the current House. However, the political pressure gauge is relentless. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, show that the probability of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives after the November elections this year hovers around 85%. Should this scenario materialize, the impeachment scenario will immediately transition from the realm of science fiction to the hard reality of politics. As American analysts point out, Democrats need only a simple majority in the lower chamber to pass articles of impeachment. And if Trump's approval rating, stagnating in the 42-44% range, remains at this level, the opposition will have both a formal pretext and a political mandate. The "Jurors" in the Senate: Why Removal is Ruled Out Even in the Worst-Case Scenario. Here we arrive at the central paradox of the American political system in '26. Impeachment (the bringing of charges) and removal from office are two fundamentally different actions. The first is a political indictment from the House. The second is a legal verdict, requiring a constitutional supermajority of two-thirds of the Senate (67 out of 100 senators). Even if we assume a hypothetical Democratic victory in the House, achieving 67 seats in the Senate is virtually impossible due to the math of seat distribution in this cycle. The overwhelming majority of experts, from political scientists at St. Petersburg State University to former CIA analysts, agree: the Senate is highly likely to remain under Republican control, and they will not permit the removal of a president from their own party. Thus, the most likely scenario for this autumn appears to be an "empty impeachment": House Democrats will initiate proceedings, possibly pass articles of impeachment, but in the Senate, the process will be frozen or will fail spectacularly. The bets on the Kalshi market eloquently reflect this nuance: the probability of an impeachment (in the broad sense) occurring by the start of 2028 is around 65-71%, but the probability of actual remov
The United States of America (Second Half of the 2020s): An Anatomy of the Permanent Political Crisis. In the history of the United States, three presidents have undergone impeachment proceedings. But only one has managed to survive it twice, and yet returns to the Oval Office to face the prospect of a third, even more ferocious round of this constitutional showdown. The subject, of course, is Donald Trump. What we are observing today in the American political landscape this year is not just another round of partisan bickering. It is a historical crossroads, where the question "Will he remain in office until the end of his term?" is no longer the exclusive domain of fringe activists, but has shifted to a central item on the national agenda, discussed not only in the corridors of Congress but also on betting markets. Prelude: The Second Term as Revenge and Escalation. Even before the official inauguration in January of last year, rhetoric about a new impeachment hung heavy in the air of the Capitol building. Democrats, stunned by defeat and still haunted by the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, viewed Trump's return as an existential threat to the institutions. The White House, for its part, adopted the posture of a besieged fortress from day one, dismissing talk of impeachment as "pathetic" and proof of the opposition's "impotence." But unlike the first term, where the triggers for impeachment were relatively domestic events (the phone call with Zelenskyy and the January 6 riot), Trump's second administration plunged from its earliest months into a whirlwind of foreign policy adventurism, which has created the legal groundwork for the current demands for removal. This concerns military operations in Iran, the deployment of the National Guard in American cities, threats directed at Venezuela, and scandalous statements regarding Greenland and the Gaza Strip. The primary catalyst that raised the stakes to their highest historical level was the situation around the Strait of Hormuz in the spring of 2026. The president's threats to wipe entire civilizations off the face of the earth and his harsh ultimatums to Iran were viewed by the opposition not merely as bellicose rhetoric, but as potential war crimes and an abuse of power requiring an immediate constitutional response. Mechanism of the Crisis: The House and the Sword of Damocles Hanging over November. The main intrigue this year is unfolding not in the Senate chamber, but at the level of electoral expectations for the upcoming midterm elections. Currently, with the Republican Party controlling both chambers, any attempt to introduce articles of impeachment smashes against the wall of party discipline. Despite the protest gesture of Congressman John Larson, who introduced 13 articles of impeachment on April 6, including clauses on the "unlawful war in Iran" and "unstable conduct," this initiative has zero chance of even reaching a vote in the current House. However, the political pressure gauge is relentless. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, show that the probability of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives after the November elections this year hovers around 85%. Should this scenario materialize, the impeachment scenario will immediately transition from the realm of science fiction to the hard reality of politics. As American analysts point out, Democrats need only a simple majority in the lower chamber to pass articles of impeachment. And if Trump's approval rating, stagnating in the 42-44% range, remains at this level, the opposition will have both a formal pretext and a political mandate. The "Jurors" in the Senate: Why Removal is Ruled Out Even in the Worst-Case Scenario. Here we arrive at the central paradox of the American political system in '26. Impeachment (the bringing of charges) and removal from office are two fundamentally different actions. The first is a political indictment from the House. The second is a legal verdict, requiring a constitutional supermajority of two-thirds of the Senate (67 out of 100 senators). Even if we assume a hypothetical Democratic victory in the House, achieving 67 seats in the Senate is virtually impossible due to the math of seat distribution in this cycle. The overwhelming majority of experts, from political scientists at St. Petersburg State University to former CIA analysts, agree: the Senate is highly likely to remain under Republican control, and they will not permit the removal of a president from their own party. Thus, the most likely scenario for this autumn appears to be an "empty impeachment": House Democrats will initiate proceedings, possibly pass articles of impeachment, but in the Senate, the process will be frozen or will fail spectacularly. The bets on the Kalshi market eloquently reflect this nuance: the probability of an impeachment (in the broad sense) occurring by the start of 2028 is around 65-71%, but the probability of actual remov